Wolves, Blackstock and the Championship run-in

By: Tim | March 28th, 2009

Blackstock takes our loan total to seven this season... Although last weekend’s result against Wolves did nothing to help us out, points-wise that is, we avoided embarrassment at the very least, considering the score line in this fixture at Molineux, and the result was softened by the fact that all of the teams around us could only manage draws, too.

Davies claimed that the match had ‘0-0 written all over it’, he’s not wrong either, were it not for Michael Kightly’s controlled low shot in the 75th minute, one of only 3 shots the league leaders had on target, it probably would have ended that way. Obviously Wolves, and their numerous travelling supporters, will be happy with this, one of the signs of a Championship winning side is the ability to grind out results after all, but in truth it was a poor match. You can watch the highlights here.

For Forest fans the game was a chance to see on loan goalkeeper Iain Turner in action, he had a solid match but didn’t really have too much to do, I think we’re all hoping that his run of 15 games on loan without defeat (at Sheffield Wednesday and Palace) can be extended to our run-in though.

We’ve recently signed another player on loan, after much speculation (which includes the fact that he didn’t want to come to Forest) QPR’s Dexter Blackstock put pen to paper on Thursday. Rumour has it that we’ve agreed an undisclosed fee for Blackstock, should we stay up, which I’m quite pleased about. He has scored twelve times for QPR this season, and has been on the verge of the England Under 21 setup for a while now. At six foot two he’s a good partner for Earnie, too, although I hope this doesn’t lead to the Reds playing route one football.

Blackstock’s signing takes our loan total to seven players, under the rules we’re only allowed to play five loanee’s though, so my guess is that Osbourne and McSheffrey will miss out against Barnsley next Saturday, purely because they’re not fit. This is the Barnsley match where Forest fans who travelled to Burnley will get half-price tickets, by way of apology, although the normal price is £19 when Barnsley fans are being charged a mere £5.

Speaking of the England Under 21s, too, McGugan has failed to secure a place in the side for the international friendly matches this week. Pearce claimed “it would have been nice to have had a Forest player in the squad, and we have been keeping an eye on Lewis McGugan, but at the moment we felt he was not quite ready”. McGugan did start to play well, shortly after the call-up rumour first broke, but was then dropped by Davies for his ‘off the field discipline’ (read dietary habits). No doubt this didn’t help his cause.

To the run-in, then, where it looks like none of the bottom six have it any easier than the rest – most sides have a got a mixture of tough top-ten teams and relegation six-pointers. From Barnsley to Charlton the run-ins look like this:

Barnsley – 44pts: Forest (h), Sheff Utd (a), Watford (a), Swansea (h), Reading (a), Coventry (a), Wolves (h), Plymouth (a).

Norwich – 43pts: Sheff Weds (h), Swansea (a), Watford (h), Ipswich (a), Reading (h), Charlton (a).

Plymouth – 43pts: Blackpool (a), Coventry (h), Birmingham (a), Doncaster (h), QPR (a), Barnsley (h).

Forest – 41pts: Barnsley (a), Bristol City (h), Sheff Utd (a), Coventry (h), Blackpool (a), Southampton (h).

Southampton – 40pts: Charlton (h), Watford (a), Wolves (a), Crystal Palace (h), Sheff Weds (a), Burnley (h), Forest (a).

Charlton – 29pts: Southampton (a), Birmingham (h), Coventry (a), Blackpool (h), Cardiff (h), Derby (a), Norwich (h).

Barnsley have got more games left to play than anyone else, although they’re all quite tough and their situation could get worse if we manage to beat them next weekend. Norwich and Plymouth have a few tricky ties left to play, I’d say Norwich have the toughest run-in of the lot, it includes a local derby and only two teams from the bottom half of the table.

Southampton have Wolves and Burnley to play, although they could pick up points against Watford and Charlton, who look effectively relegated – if they fail to pick up any points over the next few games they could be going in to the final weeks already faced with the prospect of League One football next season. Our run-in doesn’t look too bad, Sheffield United and Bristol City notwithstanding, although we need to win our relegation six-pointers to have any hope of staying up.

Interestingly it looks like there could be a lot of tense matches on the final day, with all of the current bottom six scheduled to face each other. Of course, Charlton could already be relegated by that time, potentially making things easier for Norwich. Clearly this is all speculation though, it’s a strange old league this year, on their day most teams are capable of beating each other, with a few exceptions.

Davies has appealed for ‘calm heads’, whilst also stating the obvious: “The most important objective is to make sure we get to the end of the season with the required number of points we need to keep us up. But it is important that we stay calm and focused. This stage of the season is always like this, whether you are chasing promotion or fighting relegation. I think the performances in four of our last six matches have been positive – very positive. That is why I feel confident about the future”. I wish I had Billy’s confidence, a good result against Barnsley would go a long way to restoring it.